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January 10,2022
Austin Kuan
More than 150,000 Russian troops will be stationed on the Russian-Ukrainian border by the end of 2021, with the possibility of an invasion at any time. Political analysts around the world are speculating on what kind of countermeasures the US will take if Russia sends troops to Ukraine. According to the current situation, if Russian President Putin orders troops to enter Ukraine, the possibility of a military countermeasure by the US is extremely low, while the possibility of cutting off Russia's international financial exchanges is extremely high.
With a total area of 17.07 million square kilometers, Russia is the world's largest country, but its population is only 143 million people in 2020. By 2050, the population will have shrunk by 10 million to 133 million. A population of this size is insufficient to support a large area of land. Russian President Putin's pointing of the sword at Ukraine reflects his hidden concerns about Russia's ever-dwindling population.
Ukraine has a land area of 600,000 square kilometers, less than 4% of Russia's total land area, but a population of 42 million people. If it is included in Russia, it will significantly boost Russia's population strength. However, major powers invading neighboring countries with military force is not something the international community can tolerate in the twenty-first century. As a result, Putin's best strategy is to crack Ukraine gradually like "cutting sausages".
However, why will Russia lose 10 million people between now to 2050? This has a lot to do with the Russian elixir vodka. According to a World Health Organization report from 2018 to 2019, the top five countries in terms of alcohol consumption per capita are Lithuania, Germany, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Despite ranking fourth, Russians primarily consume vodka with an alcohol content of more than 50%, in contrast to Germany and France, which consume a large amount of beer or wine with a low alcohol content. The average life span of Russian men is only 66 years old due to the ravages of vodka (77 years for women). This represents Putin's nearly 20 years of hard work from 2003 to 2020, as well as his ongoing efforts to discourage men from drinking through various policies. As a result, the average life span of Russian men has risen from 58 to 66 years. Nonetheless, the average life span of Russian men is at least ten years lower than that of men in economically developed European, American, and Asian countries. This makes it meaningless for many men to receive a "retirement pension" in Russia, for they pass away before receiving it. In terms of why Russian men prefer vodka, it should be related to the country's high-latitude cold regions and the need to drink to keep the body warm, as well as historical and cultural factors.
Ukraine has always had a close relationship with Russia and is regarded as a part of "traditional Russia," as well as a territory under the jurisdiction of the former Soviet Union. However, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Ukraine and Russia gained independence. Ukraine wanted to be free of Russian control and began to move closer to Europe and the United States, even considering joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is totally unacceptable to Russia. Russia decided to fight back after being stabbed in the heart.
In Ukraine's population structure, Russians account for 17% of the population, with the majority of them residing in eastern Ukraine, giving Russia plenty of room to operate. As a result, as long as the Russian population is the majority in Ukrainian territory, Putin instigated the local "self-government referendum" or "independence and return to Russia referendum." The most well-known example is the Crimean independence referendum held on March 16, 2014. Because Crimea is dominated by Russians, Russia believed that sending troops to occupy Crimea after the independence referendum passed was under a proper pretext. Ukraine actually lost 27,000 square kilometers of territory and at least 2.2 million people as a result. Russia will almost certainly repeat this process in order to reestablish its traditional sphere of influence and gradually increase its population. This type of action is a pain in the neck for Western countries, but there is no other way to deal with it. As a result, the direct military invasion of Ukraine by Russia is unprofitable. President Putin, ever cunning, may continue to "divide" Ukraine.
President Putin will be 98 years old in 2050, and he will be unable to serve as President of Russia, and may even be dead. However, as he watched Russia's population gradually decline, he knew in his heart that drastic measures were needed to increase the population. He has worked hard to increase the average life span of Russian men by 8 years in nearly 20 years, but a Russian woman only gave birth to 1.5 newborns in 2019, which is less than the US's 1.7. This makes it difficult for Russia to avoid losing 10 million people by 2050 by increasing male life span and birth rates. As a result, Russia seeks to turn Ukraine into Russian territory through military or political means. Russia will cause problems for the European Union and the United States over the next ten years.
According to historians, a country with a large population does not necessarily become a world power; however, to become a world power, its standard population and land must be around 200 million people and more than 3 million square kilometers. If it does not reach this threshold, it can only become a regional hegemony. It was not enough to rely on British Isles colonies and 13 North American states to complete the British Empire until it gained control of India. Prior to World War II, the Japanese empire acquired the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria, completing the scale of a powerful country. The U.S. and the Soviet Union are in the stage of the two powers contending for hegemony in the 1970s. At the time, both sides' populations exceeded 200 million, and the land area exceeded 3 million square kilometers. Although China and India met this standard at the time, they were both impoverished and could only be described as big, not powerful, countries. The United States had a population of 220 million people in 1979, while the Soviet Union had a population of 290 million. Both sides possessed the same incredible nuclear weapons. As a result, the United States regarded the Soviet Union as its primary adversary, and it was far from certain that it could defeat it. The US could only be involved in a "proxy war" with the Soviet Union in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Russia, which inherited the majority of the Soviet Union, had a population of 146 million people. Russia knew it was bad when it faced the US, which had a population of 250 million at the time, and it could no longer play the world hegemony like the Soviet Union, only relegated to a larger regional hegemony. Russia will never have a steady stream of outstanding immigrants like the United States. When combined with the fact that men's life span is lower than the global average, the gap in national strength with the US has widened.
The population of the United States will increase from 330 million in 2020 to 380 million by 2050. Russia's population will be only 133 million by then, while the United States' population will be nearly three times that of Russia. How could President Putin not be concerned? With a declining population, how will the future leader who succeeds Putin protect the vast land of 17.07 million square kilometers? It is, in fact, extremely difficult.
Many people believe that China will implode in the future. In terms of population stability, Russia is far more likely to collapse than China. In addition to the central government, Russia's territory is home to 21 republics (excluding the Republic of Crimea). How strong will Moscow's central government be if Russia's population declines in the future and the participating republics seek independence?
President Putin is very likely to carry out a "re-expansion" strategy, which is to re-incorporate the country with the largest population that was originally independent from the Soviet Union into the territory of Russia, in order to postpone the fate of Russia's possible collapse in the future. Ukraine, with a population of 42 million people, is the first option. If European and American countries are successful in allowing Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia will face chronic disintegration in the long run due to population decline and aging. If Russia gradually dismantles Ukraine by "slicing sausages" and waiting for control to accumulate. To some extent, if Ukraine is forced to hold a formal referendum and become Russian territory, Russia will have more capital to continue to play a significant role on the Eurasian stage.
Putin's willpower will be stronger than that of the President of the United States, based on the strength of his determination. From the population change in 2050 to the world situation in 2022, it is clear that Russia's population decline has finally led to Ukraine's dangerous situation.