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See the significant changes in the future of the times from the population estimate of 2050.Series 4-4.
January 19,2022
Austin Kuan
The population of the United States will grow from 330 million in 2020 to 380 million by 2050. Because the United States is the most popular destination for global immigrants, it will not face the same issues as China, Japan, or Russia. In terms of population decline, the United States is fortunate in that there is no obvious phenomenon of aging population. As the world's most powerful country, the United States has always relied on a steady flow of excellent immigrants to maintain its national strength. With its vast and fertile territory, it has a strong chance of remaining the world's largest country in 2050.
In terms of the age change of a country's demographic structure, international survey agencies primarily use the "median age" (where 50% of the population falls) to observe the evolution of a country's population aging, rather than the "average age." The calculation of this is critical. Why? As a result, the "average age" will be distorted. Consider the following scenario: a pair of grandchildren and grandparents aged 10 and 80 years old, with an average age of 45 years old, and two brothers aged 43 and 47 years old, with an average age of 45 years old. Which two have the ability to work? The answer is obviously the latter, demonstrating the distortion of "average age." In 2021, the median age of the US population will be around 38.6 years old, implying that less than half of the US population will be 38.6 years old. Although it is not a young population structure, it is in the prime and deserving of the status of the world's largest power. By 2050, the median age of the US population will be 42.7 years. Although it is showing signs of aging, it is not overt.
Since Trump was elected as President of the United States in 2016, the US has gradually shifted its imaginary adversary from Russia to China. The United States must confront China's rapid economic rise. China's GDP had reached 70% of the US level by 2020, and it is well known that China's economic growth rate has always outpaced that of the US. As a result, by 2030, China's overall annual GDP will have surpassed that of the United States, making China the world's largest GDP country. However, because China has a population of more than 1.4 billion people, the United States has a GDP per capita that is six times that of China, which means that while China's overall GDP in 2030 will surpass that of the United States, its national income level will be significantly lower. It is still not the world's most powerful country.
In terms of population median age, China's median age in 2021 is expected to be around 38.8 years old, similar to the 38.6 years old in the United States. However, between 2022 and 2050, China's population aging rate will accelerate, so that by 2050, the median age will be 49.6 years old, much higher than the 42.7 years old in the US, and the gap will grow from 0.2 years old to nearly 7 years old, equivalent to a middle-aged person facing a young man. China's population of 1.44 billion in 2020 was about to enter a period of rapid population aging and then reduction. After subtracting the number of deaths, China's birth population increased by only 2.04 million in 2020, approaching negative population growth.
The population issue has long been a source of contention in Chinese politics. The earliest cause was Mao Zedong's statement in the 1960s: "Many hands make light work." This resulted in China's population increasing from 670 million at the time to 970 million in 1979, plus an additional 100 million "unregistered population" who are not counted in the statistics. Consider the possibility that famine and war will erupt in China if this trend continues. You should be aware that China was still a poor country in 1979. The population of nearly 1.1 billion was enough to push the population to 1.7 to 1.8 billion in 2000, and China lacked the food and resources to deal with such a staggering situation. As the population grew, the government was forced to declare the "one-child policy" in 1979. The strict implementation of the one-child policy caused the Chinese population to plateau at around 1.4 billion people in 2016, and the one-child policy was successfully phased out. However, the 300 million people born from a single birth in China between 1980 and 2016 have experienced a period of rapid economic growth, allowing them to enjoy economic strength that exceeds that of their parents and grandparents, but they also face exorbitant housing prices, which, on the other hand, has greatly reduced their willingness to marry or have children. The 1.1 billion people who came before them are already old or dying. The number of new born populations prepared to face 2050 has dropped dramatically. As a result, China must repeal the "one-child policy" by 2016, but it is too late. Unlike the United States, China lacks the conditions to attract exceptional immigrants. As a result, between 2020 and 2050, China will face an increasingly aging population, which will also cause China to lose its abundant labor force. The elderly will consume less, and they will require more medical attention and care. These will dampen China's future economic growth momentum and prevent it from establishing global hegemony.
Because of the population problem, China is at best a regional hegemony, similar to India, but China has a little more influence. No matter how powerful China's future weapons are, it will not be able to establish a world-class hegemony. There are two reasons for this: First, China only seeks to restore the glory of the Qing Dynasty's prosperity, so the geographical hegemony it seeks is limited to Asia. The second factor is China's aging population, which necessitates the expenditure of significant resources to care for the elderly, and the advantage of cheap labor is no longer available. These two reasons alone are sufficient to determine that it will continue to be the world's top power if the United States does not face any problems in the future. However, even if the United States' national power declines, it only means that the United States' influence in Asia has declined significantly. It does not imply that China is capable of supplanting the United States as the world's dominant power. Instead, there are two powers in the world, and both of them are spheres of influence with greater regional hegemony.
The severity of the population problem in the United States is comparable to that of China, but the source of the problem is not population aging or decline, but rather the number of ethnic groups within the population structure. According to the 2020 United States Census, whites accounted for 61.6 percent of the national population, a 10.8 percent decrease from 72.4 percent ten years ago. Hispanic Americans from Central and South America (Hispanic) are the second largest ethnic group, accounting for 18% of the total population. African Americans are the third largest ethnic group, accounting for approximately 12.4 percent of the total population. Asians are the fourth largest ethnic group, accounting for about 5% of the population. Because Hispanics, Africans, and Asians have higher fertility rates than whites, there is no need to wait until 2040, when the whites' ratio will fall below 50% and the absolute advantage of ethnic groups will change.
Before 2040, there will be no change in ethnic superiority in France, Germany, or Italy, but avoiding this situation in the future in the United States will be difficult unless legislation restricts the origin of immigrants. However, once the US does this, the inflow of high-quality immigrants will decline, reducing the country's national power and causing the US demographic structure to age earlier. The US has always claimed to be a "melting pot of nations," but the majority of the population has always been "white people." For whites, who have dominated ethnic numbers for nearly 300 years, a population of less than 50% means that the United States is no longer eligible to be referred to as a country of "white people," a phenomenon that many white people in the United States are unlikely to accept.
There have been numerous reports in recent years of American police officers shooting unarmed black people. Whether or not law enforcement is correct, the "Black Lives Matter" movement has taken root in society, causing tensions between ethnic groups. In an effort to deter illegal Hispanic immigrants from Central America, President Trump built a larger border wall between the United States and Mexico. This shows that whites are concerned that their dominance will be challenged. And, as America's hostility toward China has grown stronger, the situation of Chinese Americans has become more complicated. Many Chinese in the United States will most likely return to China in the future for further development.
Of course, asserting that the United States has encountered major problems solely due to the future development of the population structure is not always objective. However, since the United States' financial tsunami in 2009, the Federal Reserve System (FED) has printed a large amount of money in order to save the economy and the stock market. Although the stock market in the United States has continued to rise from 2009 to 2021, it has also created an extremely wide gap between the rich and the poor. This has led to a large number of white Americans without a college education hating high-income whites or other colored ethnic groups, and low-income Africans hating whites and high-income people even more. This has resulted in societal division and tension in the United States, with no signs of abating.
Both the United States and China are wonderful countries, but when we consider the population issue, we can see that both will face significant challenges in the future. If these problems are not addressed properly, they will severely erode their national power. When powerful countries faced serious internal social problems that could not be properly resolved, they frequently launched foreign wars to divert their citizens' attention. Today, both the United States and China are gradually falling into such a trap.